"Facing growing inflation, US debt-ceiling discussions and Omicron variant, December is likely to have a sharp re-pricing of the assets and high levels of volatility". December was marked by high price variations in the crypto space with BTC price falling -18% against USD while other asset classes such as equities (S&P 500) and Gold, were up +4.2% and +2.9%, respectively.
Our view is that December is the first case of real-decoupling between BTC and the rest of the crypto market, where many major ALTs (including ETH), demonstrated stronger resistance and capital inflows than BTC. We believe Bitcoin will continue diminishing its dominance in the crypto space, which is currently at its lowest levels of 40%. Innovation doesn't seem to be a high priority within Bitcoiners or the Bitcoin network in comparison to Terra, Avax, Solana, BSC, FTM, SCRT, Harmony (with its play-to-earn DeFi Kingdoms), etc. However, a crash in the crypto market (which we believe it's unlikely but...you never know) should affect ALTs more than BTC given the beta exposure that they carry.
We are expecting BTC to move to ATHs, although we don't expect higher highs in the coming month. We have a big cash position which will be used if the market breaks out/down from the current range.
With BTC falling -33% from ATH and -18% during the month, we collected good premiums but we were also affected by the long deltas that had generated good profits during October and November. Another macro-change in the market is that BTC dropped -18% and the IV dropped -18% too. That could be a sign of institutions entering in crypto and flattering the interest curve, which affects the R/R of short-Vega strategies.
Teks Alpha Performance (%)
Teks Alpha Performance vs Benchmarks since inception (March 2021)
|TEKS A||BTC||BTC IND||HFRX|