Market Overview
November was yet again another eventful month for the financial markets.
Throughout November the SPY posted a return of +9.1% and the YTD is +20.9%. The Nasdaq Composite performed +10.8% (YTD of +35.4%). We need to point out that the SPY had one of the best November performances in 100 years. November traditionally kicks off the best six months of the year for equities due in part to stock buybacks and pension plans picking up at the beginning of the month, while mutual fund tax-loss selling ends in October.
The month’s equity gains were accompanied also by a bond rally that saw the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury slide to +4.35% from a peak of 5% in October, representing its biggest net monthly decline since December 2008. The U.S. aggregate bond index rose nearly 5% in November for its biggest monthly gain in over 35 years.
US Q3 GDP grew +5.2% more than the prior estimate (+4.9%) and the fastest in two years. US ISM manufacturing index shrank for a 13th straight month, which is the worst stretch in two decades. And it needs to be pointed out that the ability of US households to cover an unexpected 2k US$ expense is the lowest level in a decade. US mortgage rates also increased significantly, slowering the real estate market. Average monthly new mortgage payments are now 52% higher than the average apartment rent, as per CBRE. That is worse than the lead up to the 2008 housing market crash when the premium peaked at 33%. Credit card debt also grew. In this line millennial credit card delinquency now exceeds pre pandemic levels.
Again, therefore, inflation and interest rates (and economic activity) persisted as the dominant themes influencing market activity. The next Fed meetings will be held December 12 and 13. Nevertheless, there seems to be no clear market direction.
Performance
During November the Fund’s preliminary net return was +0.6%, bringing our YTD net performance to +11.75%.
We are comfortable with the performance of our market neutral model and the enhancements which were put in place during the last months.
Teks Alpha Performance (%)
| JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | — | — | 1.36 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 1.51 | 1.61 | 1.15 | 2.56 | 1.70 | 0.05 | 12.9 |
| 2022 | -0.65 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -0.10 | -1.85 | -5.7 | 2.35 | -1.61 | -0.5 | 0.33 | -3.1 | -0.7 | -9.0 |
| 2023 | 3.5 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.20 | 5.20 | -1.50 | 0.2 | 1.10 | -1.50 | -0.3 | +0.6 | — | 11.7 |
Teks Alpha Performance vs Benchmarks since inception (March 2021)
| TEKS ALPHA | SPY | HFRI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective | 14.68% | 21.03% | 4.28% |
| Annualized | 5.56% | 7.96% | 1.62% |
| STD Dev | 6.80% | 18.02% | 5.90% |
| Shape Ratio | 0.38 | 0.28 | -0.23 |